Changing Climate: Unveiling the Historical Tale of Natural Forces and Human Influence

We need to talk! 
Everyone knows statements like 
‘Climate change and global warming have always existed!’
‘It snows in winter and it's still cold!’
‘Extreme weather events such as heat, heavy rain and flooding have always existed, they don't prove climate change.’ 
‘The earth has always warmed and cooled naturally in the past, so what?’

But is that true?
Climate researchers are constantly confronted with statements of this kind. Few topics evoke such strong emotions in people.
This exhibition invites you to take a fresh look at epochal disasters in history: Which were of natural origin, which were perhaps man-made? Discover which research methods we can use to categorise these events.

Another climate exhibition? But this time with a different perspective!

Major natural disasters in history: they were rare, but often had a global impact, including mass extinctions. Their frequency due to tectonic movements has remained constant over millions of years: Earthquakes and tsunamis triggered other events, such as storms with heavy rainfall, which in turn can result in floods and landslides. 

In contrast, climate-related disasters have increased almost tenfold in the last 100 years: collected data shows that the probability of events such as floods has increased significantly. Climate change does not trigger disasters directly. Rather, it creates the conditions that favour disasters.
 
Rediscover the major climate disasters of history with us and trace the connections to our present and future. We want to inspire you to develop a deeper understanding of how the Earth has changed over time - because climate change is real.

What fascinates us about this topic?
The fascination for natural forces and their effects is deeply rooted in our nature. Catastrophes - as extremely powerful events - arouse our curiosity. Our innate survival instinct drives us to recognise potential dangers.
This fascination also extends to the unknown and unpredictable: the desire to understand the inexplicable is deeply rooted in our nature.

Natural disasters can create social solidarity and bring people closer together. At the same time, playing with fear also plays a role, as observing or imagining natural disasters can be an adrenaline-fuelled experience. Humans have always had the ability to learn from stories and experiences of other dangers. 
But as fascinating as natural events are, their effects have been and continue to be devastating.

Effects on people and society: from prehistory to the present day
In the past, natural disasters had a significant impact on people around the world and were characterised by tragic episodes that were described in detail by medieval chroniclers, for example. Examples such as devastating earthquakes or drought episodes with crop failure, famine and death bear witness to difficult times for mankind.
 
Nowadays, disasters are often home-made: Western societies contribute significantly to the current challenges with two thirds of CO2 emissions, while developing countries in particular suffer from the consequences of climate change and are more severely affected by its effects. 
However, despite the time lag of climate change for industrialised countries, Western societies are now also feeling the effects of climate change all too clearly due to the increased occurrence of extreme weather events and are affected both directly and indirectly by the ecological, economic and social impacts.

Social impacts: In 2020, thirty million people were displaced due to climate change-related disasters. For the most part, environmental refugees are internally displaced within their national borders. Historically, there have also been climate refugees who have had to leave their homes due to natural disasters. The question remains: Will Western societies take in these people when living within their own national borders is no longer possible?
 
Economic impact: Historically, the economic impact of natural disasters has always been enormous. The costs caused by climate disasters could rise to around 12.5 trillion US dollars worldwide by 2050. One example: around 762 million people are at risk of flooding. Of these, around 603 million are low- to middle-income people, compared to around 159 million high-income people. Many people are already struggling financially and the gap between rich and poor is widening. The question will no longer be whether we can afford climate change, but how we have to finance it.

Ecological effects: In addition to profound and sometimes irreversible changes to the landscape, human construction projects and infrastructure must be adapted quickly, a task that is often difficult to realise nowadays. Ecosystems are changing, species distribution areas are changing and species extinction is occurring. Sea levels are rising and entire land masses are disappearing, water resources are changing due to altered precipitation patterns and warming oceans are leading to coral bleaching. This list could go on and on.

And what about us in Bavaria?
Although Bavaria is not one of the regions of the world particularly at risk from natural disasters, the forces of nature regularly cause major and minor damage here too. The high population density and the spread of human settlements and infrastructure in areas that are particularly at risk of flooding, for example, mean that natural disasters also cause considerable damage in Bavaria. 
As climate change progresses, heatwaves could become more frequent in Bavaria, and coping with climate refugees from other parts of the world could become an economic and social challenge if global warming continues at this rate and climate change adaptation strategies are neglected. 

Time for us all to act! 

What were the natural climate fluctuations like during human history and what is the difference to today?

Ice age? Ice age? Cold period? Clarification of terms!
The earth is currently in an ice age. The entire ice age did not end 11,500 years ago, but only one cold period within this age. Cold periods last on average over 100,000 years. There have been at least six ice ages in the course of the Earth's history, and we are currently in the last of these. This has already lasted for 2.6 million years. Strictly speaking, we should therefore speak of a Weichselian glaciation 11,500 years ago and not of a general ice age. The Vistula Ice Age got its name from the Vistula River (Polish: Wisła), which flows through Poland.

What is a warm period?
A warm period is a period in climate history that is located between two cold periods and has higher average temperatures than these long, cold phases. For almost 12,000 years we have been in such a warm period, the so-called Holocene. These warm periods generally extend over a period of 10,000 to 30,000 years.  

How did our ancestors survive in Europe during the Cold Period?
Until now, scientists have assumed that only a few individuals inhabited Europe and that many parts were completely frozen over and therefore uninhabitable. However, recent studies by Jesús Rodríguez from the National Centre for Human Evolution Research (CENIEH) in Burgos, Spain, show using calculation models that the population in Western Europe could have been between 13,000 and 25,000 individuals.
The researchers analysed the climatic conditions in Europe in the period from 560,000 to 360,000 years ago. They found that several regions were considered ‘life-friendly’ and that an exchange between individuals was possible.

Miikka Tallavaara from the University of Helsinki and other Finnish researchers have determined that around 23,000 years ago, when the glaciers in Europe reached their last greatest extent, more than a third of the continent remained habitable. At that time, Europe provided a habitat for around 130,000 people.

The cold period 23,000 years ago had a decisive impact on human history. Humans had to continuously adapt and deal with various challenging living conditions. This adaptation was of crucial importance for further development. Humans developed into experienced hunters, craftsmen and artists, thus laying the foundations for further development in human history.

Current study revolutionises our understanding
A recent study using genetic analysis focussed on 356 individuals from ancient cultures in Europe and Central Asia who lived between 35,000 and 5,000 years ago. The aim of this study, published in Nature, was to investigate migration movements during the last glacial maximum 25,000 to 19,000 years ago. The Gravettian culture, which existed between 32,000 and 24,000 years ago, showed genetic differences between the populations in the west and south-west (present-day France and Iberia) compared to those in central and southern Europe (present-day Czech Republic and Italy).
The descendants of the Western Gravettians survived the cold maximum by staying in south-west Europe during this phase and later spreading northwards and eastwards across Europe. These results support the hypothesis that during the coldest phase of the last ice age, humans sought shelter in south-western Europe, which offered more favourable climatic conditions at that time.

Interestingly, it was found that the Italian peninsula did not serve as a place of retreat. Hunters and gatherers of the Gravettian culture, who lived in central and southern Europe, were no longer genetically detectable there after the cold maximum was over. Instead, people of other origins settled on the Italian peninsula, presumably from the Balkans.

The descendants of this group spread across Europe again around 14,000 years ago, displacing other populations. This spread could be due to global warming and the increasing expansion of forests in Europe. The decline of the mammoth steppe, the habitat of the former inhabitants, may also have contributed to their displacement. Overall, the study provides important insights into the migration patterns of early human populations during climatic changes.

What does this have to do with climate change?

Scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research predict that man-made climate change could lead to a shift of 50,000 years until the next cold period. This would mean that the Earth would skip a complete cold cycle, which is referred to as accelerated global warming - an unprecedented development.

A permanent increase in global average temperature without a corresponding cold cycle would have far-reaching consequences for the Earth and its ecosystems. Potential consequences range from extreme weather events and rising sea levels to changes in ecosystems. The already observed shifts in precipitation patterns, the melting of glaciers and the occurrence of heat waves are just some of the signs that we are already in the midst of this accelerated climate change.

The potential impacts on human societies are manifold and affect livelihoods such as agriculture, water resources and housing. The challenge is that societies may not be able to adapt quickly enough to changing environmental conditions. Infrastructures, economic systems and political decision-making processes are often geared towards slow, gradual changes. However, the current rapid pace of climate change could lead to a gap between the adaptive capacities of humans and the environment.

A threat to humanity?
Volcanic eruptions can have a major impact on people's lives. Even in prehistoric times, societies were confronted with such catastrophes and the destruction they caused. In addition, volcanic eruptions cause huge quantities of ash and sulphate particles to enter the atmosphere and remain there. If these particles condense, this can lead to partial absorption of sunlight and thus to climatic changes.

Volcanic eruptions responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs?
Two main theories for the extinction of the dinosaurs have been discussed in the past: An asteroid impact and volcanic eruptions in the Deccan region. The question of whether such events could also wipe out humanity remains.
Researchers have discovered that an asteroid impact 66 million years ago probably caused the mass extinction of the dinosaurs. This finding was published in a study in the journal ‘Science’ with German participation. Earlier discussions pointed to massive volcanic activity in the Deccan region. However, scientists argue that there is no chronological coincidence. According to André Bornemann from the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) in Hanover, at least half of the gas emissions from the Deccan volcano took place well before the mass extinction.
This supports the long-standing hypothesis that an asteroid impact wiped out the dinosaurs. But what are the conditions like after massive volcanic eruptions?

The LALIA crisis
The period from 536 to around 660 AD is referred to by researchers as the ‘Late Antique Little Ice Age’ (LALIA). This period was triggered by three major volcanic eruptions in the years 536, 540 and 547 AD. The effect on the climate was intensified by the retarding effect of the oceans and a minimum of solar activity. A series of social upheavals such as the migrations and epidemics occurred during this period. The cooling was about 2 degrees in Europe and 3 degrees in Asia.
Procopius of Caesarea (* around 500 in Caesarea Maritima; † around 560 in Constantinople) described the sun during this time as follows: ‘The sun, without radiance, shone all year round only like the moon and gave the impression that it was almost completely eclipsed. Moreover, its light was not pure and as usual. But since the sign was seen, neither war nor pestilence nor any other evil that brings death to men ceased. (Histories IV 14, translation from: Vandalenkriege. Greek-German, translated by Otto Veh, Munich 1971, p. 263).

Prokop's descriptions proved not to be exaggerated. The following years saw famines and, above all, a huge epidemic that became sadly famous as the Justinian Plague. Several episodes of this epidemic affected the entire Mediterranean region and there were also numerous deaths north of the Alps.

The consequences of the LALIA crisis are also being discussed in Scandinavian research, as climate models show that the average annual temperature there also fell by 2 degrees Celsius. Against this background, the complete absence of several summers as a result of LALIA is described as real evidence for the integration of the so-called Fimbulwinter, known from the pre-medieval doomsday myth ‘Ragnarök’.

Known major volcanic disasters
Toba
The eruption of the Toba supervolcano around 74,000 years ago almost led to the extinction of the human race. The volcano on the Indonesian island of Sumatra erupted with a VEI 8 eruption, causing global average temperatures to drop dramatically. This volcanic winter is suspected to have triggered the coldest period of the Würm Ice Age, leading to a decline in plant growth.
 
Tambora
The strongest eruption ever described by humans occurred in May 1815 on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa. The eruption of Tambora had a VEI of 7 and produced around 160 cubic kilometres of tephra. The following year, 1816, became known as ‘the year without a summer’ due to the falling temperatures. Even in the Alps there was famine. A total of 91,000 people are thought to have died as a result of the eruption.

Krakatoa
On 27 August 1883, the volcanic island of Krakatau sank into the sea. The magma chamber of the volcano between Java and Sumatra emptied in a massive eruption. As a result, the volcano collapsed and plunged into the emptied magma chamber. This implosion caused tsunamis that killed more than 36,400 people. When water entered the magma chamber, powerful explosions and pyroclastic flows occurred, reaching as far as Sumatra and killing countless people there.

The interaction of volcanism and climate
Volcanic eruptions can have a direct impact on regional and even global weather and influence the climate in the long term. Particular attention is paid to large, highly explosive plinian volcanic eruptions. With their eruption columns often up to 40 kilometres high, these events transport large quantities of climate-impacting gases such as sulphur and halogens as well as ash directly into the stratosphere.

In the stratosphere, these gases initially form an aerosol layer that prevents the warming rays of the sun from reaching the Earth's surface with the same intensity as before. In addition, the volcanic gases entering the stratosphere permanently destroy the protective ozone layer.

Experts are currently asking themselves whether man-made climate change is increasing volcanic activity and thus increasing the risk of a highly explosive eruption. 
Global warming is causing glaciers to melt, which can lead to pressure changes in the earth. These changes could lead to an increased frequency of volcanic eruptions. The heavy glaciers are pushing down the earth's crust and outer mantle. When the ice carapaces melt, a counter-pressure is created that leads to tensions. This can be released in the form of increased volcanic activity. 
Although it takes some time for this effect to occur and it can take several centuries, studies show that eruption cycles correlate with climate cycles (alternating warm and cold periods). This means that phases of warming are always followed by a phase of increased volcanic activity. Man-made climate change, which goes beyond natural climate change that has lasted for thousands of years, could intensify this effect.

What are earthquakes and plate tectonics?
Earthquakes are natural phenomena that occur as tremors or quakes in the earth's crust. They are caused by the sudden release of energy along fracture planes inside the earth, known as faults. This released energy then propagates through the Earth's crust in the form of seismic waves.
Plate tectonics is a concept that describes how the Earth's outer layer, the crust, is divided into different large and small pieces called tectonic plates. These plates move slowly on the Earth's mantle, the layer directly beneath the crust. The movement of the plates can cause them to drift apart, collide or slide sideways past each other. These movements can cause the described earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and the formation of mountains. The concept of plate tectonics helps us to understand phenomena such as earthquakes and volcanism and to predict where they might occur.

There are different types of earthquakes. These include tectonic earthquakes, which are caused by the movement of tectonic plates, and volcanic earthquakes, which are associated with the rise of magma. Human activities such as mining can also trigger earthquakes, which are known as induced earthquakes. Water in reservoirs can trigger earthquakes by pressing on tectonic plates and causing stresses in the earth's crust. This can cause existing faults to move and cause earthquakes.
The magnitude of an earthquake is usually measured using the Richter scale or the moment magnitude scale, based on the amount of energy released during the earthquake. While small earthquakes can be barely noticeable, large earthquakes cause significant damage to buildings and infrastructure and can lead to major loss of life.

How long has the earth been shaking?
Since its formation around 4.5 billion years ago, the earth has regularly experienced tremors in the form of earthquakes. These natural phenomena are caused by the movement of tectonic plates and other geological activities. Knowledge of these events goes back a long way historically, with ancient civilisations such as the Greeks, Romans, Chinese and Persians providing some of the earliest records. For example, Greek historians such as Thucydides and Herodotus reported on earthquakes in their region. In China, earthquakes have also been recorded in historical documents since the Shang Dynasty (16th to 11th century BC).

The Lisbon earthquake (1755)
On the morning of 1 November 1755, a catastrophic earthquake shook the city of Lisbon, Portugal, and the surrounding regions. With an estimated magnitude of between 8.5 and 9.0, this event was one of the most devastating earthquakes in European history. The tremors were so strong that large parts of the city were turned into a field of rubble.

What made the Lisbon earthquake particularly tragic were the events that followed. Immediately after the quake, a massive tsunami hit the coast of Portugal, causing further destruction and loss of life. The tidal wave not only hit Lisbon, but also other coastal cities and islands in the Atlantic.
As if that wasn't enough, numerous fires broke out in the city, fuelled by the destruction of infrastructure and the failure of water supply systems. These fires reduced large parts of Lisbon to ashes.
The total number of victims is still not known exactly, but it is estimated that between 30,000 and 40,000 people died in Lisbon alone. Many more were injured and left homeless.

The Lisbon earthquake not only had a local impact, but also sparked an international debate about the role of God in the world. The disaster was interpreted by some as divine punishment and led to a re-evaluation of the religious beliefs and philosophical ideas of the time. In addition, the event influenced architecture and urban planning in Europe and led to increased efforts to develop earthquake safety standards and building regulations.

Is there a link between earthquakes and today's climate change?
Climate change and the associated melting of ice can change previously stable areas and lead to earthquakes. Anthropogenic (= man-made) climate change can influence the stress distribution in the earth's crust through mass changes on the earth's surface, such as rising sea levels or the melting of glaciers, and thus trigger earthquakes on tectonic faults. As is known from the geological past, such earthquakes can also occur in regions that are normally less seismically active, such as Scandinavia after the last ice age 11,7000 years ago. These earthquakes reached magnitudes of 8 to 9. 
A well-known example is the Pärvie fault in Scandinavia. When the Scandinavian ice sheet melted around 10,000 years ago, this fault, which is around 150 kilometres long, became seismically active. This created a 10 to 15 metre high fault step that is still visible in the landscape today.

It's getting hot - too hot!
In recent decades, climate change has caused an alarming increase in extreme heat events around the world. 
The increase in heat due to climate change exacerbates the problems of forest fires and water scarcity worldwide. Dry conditions favour the occurrence and intensity of forest fires, while prolonged dry periods lead to water scarcity affecting both urban communities and rural regions.

These heatwaves not only pose a challenge to society, but also have a specific impact on vulnerable populations such as the elderly and people with pre-existing medical conditions. They are at a higher risk of developing serious health problems as a result of the heat, leading to an increasing number of deaths.

Heatwaves in history?
There are few reports of extreme heat events and heatwaves from history and unfortunately these are not documented in detail. 
The ‘Roman period optimum’ refers to a period of relatively warm temperatures during the Roman period, particularly during the period from 250 BC to 400 AD. 
It is considered a period in which temperatures in some parts of the world, including the Mediterranean, were warmer than in other periods, despite fluctuations.
 
During the Roman Climatic Optimum, there was a relatively mild and stable climatic period that created favourable conditions for agricultural activities and human settlement. This led to an economic boom in the Roman Empire and favoured the expansion and stability of the empire.
 
The information we have about real historical heatwaves is often indirect and comes from reports of health problems, effects on agriculture or other secondary sources. These can provide evidence that heatwaves occurred at certain times, but the exact circumstances and effects of such events are often less well documented than modern heatwaves.

Heatwaves a modern problem?
A study by the international research group World Weather Attribution (WWA) shows that the current heatwaves would not be possible without climate change. 
A team of researchers focussed on the south-west of the USA, northern Mexico, southern Europe and the lowlands of China. Using weather data in July, the month with the most dangerous heat conditions in these areas, they analysed how climate change affects heatwaves. The results suggest that climate change has increased the likelihood of heatwaves in China by at least 50 times. Without this influence, such extreme events would have occurred in China only once every 250 years. For the USA, Mexico and Europe, the study even shows that the record heat events in July would be ‘practically impossible’ without climate change. These findings are based on a proven methodology that compares the current heatwaves with climate model simulations to investigate the role of man-made climate change in the development of extreme heat in these regions.

Major challenges: Forest fire risk and water scarcity

Forest fires are becoming more intense and climate change is increasing the risk of fires on all continents except Antarctica. Although global warming does not cause fires, it does favour their spread. On a global average, the fire season has become around 20 per cent longer since we started burning fossil fuels. So-called fire weather occurs frequently - a phenomenon that essentially consists of high temperatures, little precipitation and wind.

The fire known as the ‘Augusta Complex’ (August 2020) was the largest forest fire in the world since 1932, covering an area of around one million acres (approx. 404,000 hectares). 
It occurred in August 2021 in the Northern California region, USA. This forest fire was a combination of several individual fires that merged into a large fire complex. The causes were dry conditions, high temperatures and strong winds, which favoured the spread of the fire. The Augusta Complex wildfire threatened remote communities as well as valuable natural habitats and forest areas. Firefighters battled intensely against the flames, utilising air support and fire barriers to contain the fire. Despite their efforts, the fire caused significant damage to the environment and forced many residents to evacuate. It took several weeks before the fire could be brought under control.

In addition to heat and fire, water scarcity has become a major challenge.
Water scarcity can be caused by various factors, including natural climate variability, population growth, excessive water use and environmental change. Historically, communities around the world have struggled with water scarcity at various times, whether due to droughts, inadequate water supply infrastructure or other local factors. However, climate change has undoubtedly helped to exacerbate the situation.

Human-induced global warming is having a dramatic impact on water bodies. Warmer temperatures, increased evaporation and a changed precipitation regime directly influence the water balance. As a result of climate change, droughts and heatwaves are becoming more frequent, rivers sometimes have extremely low water levels and groundwater levels are falling. 

Peatlands are an important part of our ecosystem. They play a critical role in regulating the climate, preserving biodiversity and providing vital natural functions for humans. They also protect the cultural assets within them, such as the prehistoric settlement at Pestenacker. Unfortunately, peatlands are increasingly affected by climate change, which will have serious consequences for the fragile balance of our ecosystem.

If the moors change, the precipitation patterns will also change, resulting in water shortages. The drying out of peatlands can trigger a chain reaction of negative effects: When moisture decreases, the peat-forming organisms typical of moors, such as mosses and other plants, die off. As a result, the peatland loses its ability to store carbon. Instead, it becomes a source of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, which in turn further drives climate change.
 
In addition, the drying out of peatlands also has a direct impact on the wildlife that depends on these habitats. Many rare animal species, including birds, amphibians and insects, depend on wet peatlands and are threatened by the loss of their habitat and the reduction of their food sources.

Cultural assets in peatlands
When peatlands dry out, this can have a serious impact on cultural artefacts and monuments present in these areas. Archaeology has shown that peatlands often serve as exceptionally well-preserved environments that can preserve a variety of archaeological artefacts and remains. The moist, acidic or alkaline environment of bogs slows down the decomposition process of organic materials and can therefore preserve artefacts such as wooden objects, textiles and human remains for thousands of years.

However, when a bog dries out, this unique preservation environment is disrupted. The previously moist environment dries out, which can lead to accelerated decomposition of organic materials. Wooden objects can rot, textiles decay and human remains can be lost. This poses a serious threat to the archaeological heritage hidden in the moor.

In addition, archaeological sites that lie under water and have been covered by the formation of peat can also come to the surface when the bog dries out, exposing them to erosion and damage from environmental influences.
In the past, archaeology has been able to gain valuable insights into past cultures and ways of life through the discovery and analysis of artefacts from bogs. When bogs dry out, not only is this unique archaeological material lost, but also the opportunity to learn more about the history and development of human societies.

There are almost 1000 pile-dwelling and wetland settlements around the Alps. Of this large number, UNESCO selected only 111 sites for the ‘Prehistoric Pile Dwellings around the Alps’ award in 2011. Even then, it was obvious that many of the 1000 sites were threatened by drainage and could therefore be lost to future generations. Pestenacker and Unfriedshausen in the district of Landsberg am Lech are still well preserved in moist soil, but must also be protected from drying out. If one of the 111 sites were to dry out, it would not only jeopardise its World Heritage status, but also irrevocably lose it.

What it really means - Pestenacker
When construction workers were straightening the Loosbach in 1934, they came across the first prehistoric wooden artefacts in a layer of bog. The remains were a settlement of the so-called ‘Altheimer culture’ from the Neolithic period - the prehistoric Pestenacker.

Four settlement phases of the village have been identified. The oldest village consisted of around 16 houses and fell victim to a damaging fire just four years after it was founded. The structurally identical subsequent settlement lasted a further 15 years and was later followed by a third and fourth settlement. The prehistoric Pestenacker existed from 3495 BC to 3410 BC, although no data is available for the poorly preserved most recent phase.
Settlements such as Pestenacker or Unfriedshausen harbour a veritable treasure trove of information about our prehistory that we can never learn from mineral soil settlements. The preservation of organic material such as wood, grain remains or even textiles makes it possible to reconstruct the prehistoric life of the farmers of that time very well. The speciality of Pestenacker and Unfriedshausen lies in the alkaline environment of the moor, as plant material in particular has been very well preserved. However, this wealth of knowledge is endangered by climate change. 

Even more moors
Tollund Moor in Denmark is one of the most famous moors in the world, both for its natural beauty and for its historical and archaeological significance. It is located on the Jutland peninsula in the central part of Denmark and covers an area of around 40 square kilometres. The bog is known for its exceptionally well-preserved bog bodies, which offer a fascinating insight into the prehistoric cultures of the region.
The bog bodies of the Tollund bog date mainly from the Iron Age and date from around 400 B.C. to 200 A.D. These bog bodies have often been found in surprisingly good condition, which is due to the unique preservation conditions of the bog. The acidic and anaerobic environment of the bog prevented the normal decomposition process and meant that the bodies and their personal effects remained relatively intact for centuries.

The most famous find in the Tollund bog is the Tollund bog body, which was discovered in 1950. This bog body dates from the Iron Age and is one of the best-preserved bog bodies in the world. Its amazingly well-preserved body and the details of its clothing and hair provide important information about the life and culture of the time.
Unfortunately, the Tollund bog, like many other bogs around the world, is endangered by climate change. Increasing drought and falling groundwater levels are threatening the unique conservation conditions of the bog and therefore also the bog bodies and their cultural significance.
 
We must act - for the sake of the environment and cultural heritage
The danger of peatlands drying out can hardly be overestimated. These ecosystems serve as important carbon sinks that help to regulate the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, peatlands play a crucial role in regulating the water balance by preventing flooding, improving water quality and acting as natural water reservoirs.

It is therefore crucial to take action to mitigate the impacts of climate change on peatlands and ensure their long-term conservation. This requires a comprehensive strategy that includes the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the protection and restoration of peatlands and the promotion of sustainable land use practices.

Flooding is one of the most pressing challenges exacerbated by climate change. Extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, have a devastating impact on communities, infrastructure and the environment.

One of the main causes of flooding associated with climate change is rising sea levels. The melting of glaciers and ice floes increases the volume of water in the oceans, leading to the flooding of low-lying coastal areas. This not only threatens human settlements, but also ecosystems such as wetlands and mangroves, which are important habitats for numerous species.
In addition, the warming of the atmosphere leads to an increase in evaporation and humidity. This can lead to intense rainfall, which in turn increases the risk of river flooding and flooding in urban areas. The increasing number of heavy rainfall events is putting a strain on drainage systems and infrastructure in many cities, leading to considerable damage and risks to public safety.

In addition to direct damage to buildings and infrastructure, the effects of flooding caused by climate change also have a long-term impact on health, the economy and social stability. People lose their homes and livelihoods, agricultural land is destroyed and entire communities can be cut off from vital resources.

Flooding in the age of climate change
In recent decades, there has been a worrying increase in flooding, which is closely linked to ongoing climate change. Scientific evidence shows that climate change is leading to an increase in extreme weather events that can cause or exacerbate flooding. Heavy rainfall, storms and hurricanes are increasing in frequency and intensity, and their impact on coastal areas and inland regions is severe.
Rising sea levels due to melting ice are also contributing to an increased threat of flooding, particularly in coastal areas. Even minor storm surges can now cause significant flooding, jeopardising communities and infrastructure.
Although flooding has occurred throughout history, current trends show a significant intensification of this problem. The increasing number and intensity of floods emphasises the urgent need to take action to mitigate the effects of climate change and strengthen the resilience of our societies. 

Still remembered - the Ahr valley disaster
The Ahr Valley disaster in July 2021 was a flooding catastrophe caused by heavy rainfall. The floods hit the Ahrweiler region in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, particularly hard. River levels rose dramatically within a very short space of time, leading to rapid flooding. Entire villages were devastated by the masses of water and numerous people lost their lives. The disaster led to a massive deployment of rescue workers, but also to solidarity from the population. The devastating floods in a region that many considered safe and stable should serve as a wake-up call and encourage us all to take urgent action to protect our environment and adapt to climate change.

Strategies to combat flooding
A holistic approach is required to mitigate the effects of climate change-related flooding. This includes strengthening coastal defence measures, improving early warning systems, adapting infrastructure to climate change and promoting sustainable land use practices. Furthermore, it is crucial to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to mitigate climate change overall and reduce future flood risks.
 
Ultimately, tackling the challenges of climate change-related flooding requires a coordinated effort at local, national and global levels. Only through comprehensive cooperation can we strengthen the resilience of our societies and prepare effectively for the increasing risks posed by climate change.

Extreme weather events and their impact on society can also be recognised here. Although Germany is currently not as severely affected by climate change as other regions and countries around the world, past climate developments show that changes can also be observed here at a regional level. Future forecasts can be made on the basis of climate simulations.

The effects of the dwindling Alpine glaciers
The loss of glaciers goes far beyond the image of a melting ice landscape. It is about the heart of the Alps, about ecosystems that exist in a fragile balance, about the sources of life and recreation for millions of people. Around 1850, the glaciated area in the Alps was 4500 square kilometres. The total area of the approximately 4400 Alpine glaciers that still exist today amounts to only 1806 square kilometres. This is roughly twice the size of Berlin. 500 smaller glaciers have disappeared in recent decades and Germany has only 5 glaciers left.
The dwindling glaciers threaten the water supply and thus the livelihoods of people and nature. From agriculture to energy production and drinking water supply - the effects are tangible and threatening. Floods and rockfalls are becoming more frequent side effects, and safety in the Alpine valleys is being jeopardised.
But it is not only the ecological consequences that are alarming. Tourism, a lifeline for many Alpine communities, is suffering from the loss of glacier landscapes. Skiers, mountaineers and nature lovers are not only losing an attraction, but also a piece of their Alpine identity. The dwindling splendour of the Alpine glaciers highlights the urgent need for measures to protect the Alps and limit climate change.

Climate regions in Bavaria
Continuously rising temperatures due to climate change can also be observed in Bavaria. To illustrate the climatic differences in Bavaria, a distinction is made between seven climate regions: the Alps, the Alpine foothills, the southern Bavarian hill country, the Danube region, the eastern Bavarian hills and mountains, the Main region and the Spessart-Rhön climate region. These regions are categorised according to various climatic conditions such as the average annual temperature, annual precipitation and the differences between winter and summer. In Upper Bavaria, the climatic regions of the Alps, Alpine Foreland, Southern Bavarian Hills and part of the Danube region can be identified. The district of Landsberg am Lech is located in the South Bavarian Hills climate region.

Temperature and hot days
The climate region of the South Bavarian Hills, in which the district of Landsberg am Lech is located, is affected by climate change. Between 1951 and 2019, the average annual temperature in this region rose by 2 degrees Celsius.
Summers in the southern Bavarian hill country are also getting hotter and hotter. The number of so-called ‘heat days’, when the air temperature is measured at over 30 degrees, is increasing significantly, which increases heat stress for animals, nature and people. It becomes particularly problematic when the hoped-for cooling does not materialise at night. Nights when temperatures do not fall below 20 degrees Celsius are known as tropical nights and can cause damage to railway tracks, roads and buildings due to the extreme heat. In the past, tropical nights have only occurred sporadically in the southern Bavarian hills, but climate simulations suggest that they will occur more frequently in the future.

Precipitation and extreme heavy rainfall
It is not only the summers that have changed in the southern Bavarian hills; in the past, winters have also tended to see a continuous increase in average temperatures, leading to mild winter periods. It is therefore to be expected that the winter months will bring less snow and instead be accompanied by more rain. The rising temperatures have a direct influence on the distribution of precipitation: Due to its geographical proximity to the Alps, the southern Bavarian hill country generally has a high amount of precipitation. The further away a location in the climate region is from the Alps, the lower the amount of precipitation. Although the total amount of annual precipitation has hardly changed significantly in the past due to climate change, it is already recognisable today that the amount of precipitation in summer is decreasing. Since 1951, summer precipitation (precipitation in the summer months of June to August) has fallen by 13%. In addition to the rising temperature, evaporation increases in summer, which leads to lower water levels in the southern Bavarian hills. The increased evaporation also leads to an increase in water vapour in the atmosphere, which can result in more intensive precipitation. In the event of extreme precipitation within a short period of time, the consequences such as flooding or landslides can be fatal. As recently as the summer of 2016, some Bavarian regions were threatened by flash floods due to extreme heavy rainfall within a very short space of time. Due to global warming, such events are likely to occur more frequently in the southern Bavarian hills.

What is the district of Landsberg doing to combat climate change?
Since 2013, the district of Landsberg am Lech has been pursuing an integrated climate protection concept that includes a wide range of measures. Together with its 31 municipalities, the district is implementing numerous projects, particularly in the areas of sustainable mobility, forest cultivation, education and peatland renaturalisation. Adaptation to the consequences of climate change, public relations and education are becoming increasingly important.

Climate education programme: environmental awareness in the Landsberg district
Under the name ‘KlimaMobiLL’, an educational project has been launched that is specially designed for kindergartens and primary schools. In various teaching units, important topics such as waste avoidance, renewable energies, food production, the ecological footprint as well as climate and trees are introduced and illustrated to the children in a playful way.
Another project as part of the climate education programme is dedicated to moors and their crucial role for the climate. Two different modules are offered under the name ‘MoorTastisch!’, which are aimed at pupils in years 4 to 11. In addition to the importance of moors for the climate, participants also learn about the formation of moors and biotope management.

KlimaFit: Healthy through the summer and the EU LIFE Future Forest project
In addition to climate protection, adaptation to climate change is also of crucial importance. The increase in extreme weather events is favoured and intensified by climate change. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change, various measures are being taken, including the expansion of renewable energies, increasing energy efficiency and promoting energy-saving potential.
It is essential that society adapts to the changing conditions of climate change and takes appropriate measures. The district of Landsberg am Lech has launched the ‘KlimaFit - Gesund durch den Sommer’ project to inform the population about the heat and its health consequences, particularly vulnerable groups.
Another adaptation project, the EU LIFE project Future Forest, focuses on sustainable forest cultivation. The district of Landsberg am Lech, the town of Landsberg and the Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences are devoting three years to this topic. Using an innovative soil management system, the forest is being reorganised so that it is better able to cope with the changing conditions of climate change. In addition, the aim is to improve ecosystem services such as drinking water availability and CO2 storage, as well as to promote the climate resilience of cities and communities.

The Earth's climate has always changed. There have been colder and warmer cycles. Many people therefore think that CO2 emissions caused by humans have no major influence on the climate - but this is not true. 

Is weather also climate?
Weather describes the physical state of the atmosphere at a particular time in a particular place. For example - it is raining. Climate describes the weather over a long period of time and in particular indicates deviations from the mean value. For example - it rains for many years in a row. 
 
What does the term climate change mean?
In short, climate change refers to the cooling and warming of the Earth's climate over a long period of time. Long-term changes and factors such as temperature, precipitation and ocean currents play an important role in this.

What do CO2 emissions have to do with climate change?
The greenhouse effect is caused by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide (laughing gas) whose concentration has been naturally regulated. This process is important, warms our planet and makes life on earth possible in the first place.
Humans have been burning more fossil fuels to generate energy over the last 100 years, causing a sharp increase in CO2 emissions. This increase and other human activities have disturbed the natural balance in the atmosphere. The climate is no longer changing naturally and it is getting warmer and warmer.

How long has climate change been happening?
Climate change is a natural process that has been taking place since the earth was formed. The impact of human activities on the climate system has become particularly evident in recent decades, as warming rates are unusually fast compared to previous natural climate changes. It can therefore be said that modern climate change, as we are experiencing it today, is strongly influenced by human activities.
 
How can you even predict the climate if a weather forecast for a fortnight in advance is not correct?
Weather forecasts and climate simulations are limited in different ways. The weather forecast is limited to a few days in advance. In climate modelling, the result depends largely on the boundary conditions in the simulation period (e.g. the change in solar radiation over time). If these boundary conditions can be specified realistically, it is also possible to simulate the climate realistically.

Isn't a warmer climate generally beneficial?
The current warming of the climate is happening very quickly. There is therefore a risk that human society and the animal and plant world will not be able to adapt quickly enough to the new conditions. The lives of humans and many animal and plant species would then be jeopardised.

What have governments decided to do to limit global warming?
Governments around the world have decided to work together to protect the planet. They want to prevent the earth from warming up too much because this causes problems such as floods and droughts. Governments have agreed to release fewer harmful gases into the air that warm the earth. They also support clean energies such as solar and wind power. They are also helping to adapt to the changes, for example by providing better protection against flooding. It is important that all countries work together to protect our planet and create a good future for all.

This was enshrined in the Paris Agreement: This global climate agreement was signed by almost every country in the world in 2015. Many countries have set national or regional targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support the expansion of renewable energies such as solar and wind power through subsidies, tax breaks, feed-in tariffs and other incentives to reduce the proportion of fossil fuels in energy generation. In addition to measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, governments are also focusing on programmes to adapt to the unavoidable effects of climate change. These include investments in flood protection, drought management, improved water supply and utilisation, and the promotion of more resilient agricultural practices. Many governments are also working together to promote technology and financial transfers to help developing countries cope with climate change. This includes financial assistance for adaptation and emission reduction measures as well as the exchange of knowledge and technologies.

Why should we trust the results of climate models?
Climate models represent the physical basis of the climate and successfully reproduce the observed climate as well as past climate changes. They are based on physical laws such as the conservation of mass, energy and momentum and are successful in modelling climate features such as air temperature, precipitation and ocean currents. By including more and more physical processes and interactions in the climate system, the models are continuously improving. Although there are shortcomings, climate models provide a robust picture of significant global warming in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

What are the consequences of climate change for Germany?
Climate change manifests itself both in long-term climate changes such as rising average temperatures or higher sea levels, as well as in changes in climate variability, i.e. stronger short-term climate fluctuations and more frequent extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, droughts or hot summers.
These areas are affected in Germany:
Health: Heatwaves affect humans, animals and plants. They can have serious health consequences, especially for older and sick people.
Agriculture: A shift in the vegetation periods - the periods in which plants grow, flower and bear fruit - has an impact on agricultural production. Extreme heat and drought can lead to crop failures.
Transport: Roads and railways are flooded or washed out as a result of heavy rainfall, inland waterways suffer from high or low water levels and high temperatures can lead to damage to road surfaces and railway tracks.
Energy production: Many power stations take cooling water from nearby rivers and feed it back into the system after it has been heated. River water that is already too warm when it is withdrawn or low water levels in summer can lead to a lack of sufficient cooling water in the future. In extreme cases, this can lead to power plants having to be shut down. In addition, water that is too warm jeopardises the flora and fauna of the rivers.

What can we do to protect the climate in our everyday lives?
A particularly large amount of greenhouse gases are produced in the areas of construction and housing, mobility and nutrition. This means that a particularly high level of emissions can be avoided here.
Mobility: The most important factors are the number of long-distance journeys, the number of kilometres travelled by car and the fuel consumption of the car. 
Housing: The most important factors here are the size of the living space and the standard of insulation in relation to heating energy consumption. 
Food: Animal products such as meat, cheese and butter are associated with particularly high emissions. The production of one kilo of beef causes between eleven and 30 kilos of greenhouse gas emissions - fruit or vegetables, on the other hand, cause less than one kilo. One litre of oat milk already saves 1 kg of CO2e compared to cow's milk. Organic products also make an important contribution to protecting water and bees, among other things.

What does this ultimately mean? 
In order to combat climate change, it is important that we understand the various causes. Although climate change is a sometimes natural phenomenon, it has been significantly exacerbated by human activity. The main causes are undoubtedly man-made and we need to focus on reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. However, there are other important factors that contribute to climate change, such as deforestation and the release of greenhouse gases from livestock and agriculture.
Since these major causes of climate change are man-made, we also have the power to stop them. We know what causes global warming and we have the ability to take action to mitigate it.

More and more people are fleeing not only from war, violence or hunger, but also from the consequences of climate change. Most environmental refugees are internally displaced persons within their country of origin.
How will Western societies deal with climate refugees if they are already unable to cope with refugee movements caused by war and political persecution?

Migrations of peoples and their causes
The migration of peoples in Europe (4th to 6th century AD): During late antiquity, various Germanic tribes migrated across Europe. These movements were the result of war, political instability and economic hardship and had far-reaching effects on the political and cultural map of Europe.
 
A major factor leading to this migration was the pressure exerted by the Huns under their legendary leader Attila on the Germanic tribes and the Roman Empire. Hun invasions forced many Germanic tribes to invade Roman territory. This triggered a cascade of events that led to the migration of entire peoples to new settlement areas.
Germanic tribes such as the Goths, Vandals, Franks, Lombards and Burgundians were some of the most prominent players of this period. The Goths, for example, travelled through the Balkans and later settled in parts of the western and eastern Roman Empire. The Vandals moved to North Africa and founded their own kingdom there. The Franks settled in Gaul (modern-day France) and founded the Merovingian dynasty there.

The migration of peoples had far-reaching effects on the political, cultural and social landscape of Europe. It contributed to the fall of the Western Roman Empire and paved the way for the emergence of new kingdoms and ruling structures. At the same time, it brought with it a mixture of cultures and ethnicities that laid the foundations for the development of medieval Europe.

The flight of the Huguenots (17th century): The Huguenots were French Protestants who left France due to religious persecution during the 16th and 17th centuries. Many fled to North America, Great Britain, the Netherlands and other European countries, where they established their own communities and made a significant contribution to the culture and economy of their new homelands.
 
The Irish famine (1845-1852): The devastating Irish Famine, also known as the Great Famine, was caused by potato blight. Over a million people died of starvation and disease, and millions more fled, mainly to North America, Britain and Australia.

Movements of peoples due to climate change are often complex and multidimensional as they are linked to other socio-economic, political and cultural factors. Historically, no migration of peoples can be attributed solely to climate. Climate change, on the other hand, is a current problem and may affect migration in the future. In the coming years, climate change is expected to play an increasing role in shaping migration and refugee movements worldwide, reinforcing the need to develop adaptation and coping strategies to address the associated challenges.

In the context of the conflict in Sudan and South Sudan, drought caused by climate change played a decisive role in exacerbating environmental problems and the resulting migration movements in the 1990s. Frequent and more intense droughts caused crop failures, livestock losses and an acute shortage of drinking water, especially in nomadic communities. At the same time, climate change exacerbated land degradation, affecting agricultural productivity and forcing many people to move from rural areas to urban centres. These changes exacerbated conflicts over limited water resources, especially during periods of drought, and led to violent clashes. The combination of climate change, limited resources and social tensions continues to drive internal and cross-border migration today.

Immigration dynamics: a focal point of German society
The humanitarian obligation to provide protection and support for people in need, as well as Germany's adherence to international agreements such as the Geneva Convention on Refugees, have contributed to making Germany a major destination for refugees.
However, this immigration dynamic has also led to challenges and sparked debates on topics such as integration, cultural diversity, identity and social cohesion. The integration of immigrants into the labour market, educational institutions and society as a whole is a key focus for policy makers and communities.
 
In addition, there are discussions about managing refugee movements, creating adequate housing and promoting intercultural dialogue. These issues are also reflected in political debates and have led to a rise in populism and tensions within society.
These tensions could be exacerbated if climate refugees are added to the current immigration dynamics.

Climate change increases immigration
Climate change can contribute to increased immigration in various ways, by increasing existing migration flows or triggering new migration movements. Here are some ways in which climate change can increase immigration:
 
Environmental changes: Climate change leads to environmental changes such as droughts, floods, crop failures and loss of arable land. These changes can affect the livelihoods of many people, especially in rural areas, and lead to food shortages, water scarcity and economic instability. As a result, people may be forced to leave their homes in search of better living conditions.

Conflicts over resources: Climate change can lead to conflicts over limited resources such as water, agricultural land and natural habitats. These conflicts can lead to violent clashes and the displacement of people from their home areas, which in turn can lead to increased immigration.

Deterioration of living conditions: Changes in land use, water availability and ecological stability due to climate change can worsen the living conditions of many people, especially in the most affected areas. This can lead to people leaving their homes in search of better living conditions elsewhere.
 
Rising sea levels: Rising sea levels as a result of climate change threaten coastal areas and island states worldwide. These areas could become increasingly uninhabitable, which could lead to entire communities having to be relocated, resulting in migration movements.
 In Bangladesh, for example, people are being forced to leave their homes and move to urban areas due to rising sea levels and the frequency of flooding. In parts of Africa, droughts and land degradation are causing an increasing number of internally displaced people to flee to urban centres or neighbouring countries.

Appeal:
Addressing the challenges associated with environmental migration requires comprehensive efforts at national and international levels. This includes developing and implementing adaptation measures, supporting communities affected by environmental change and promoting policies and programmes that strengthen resilience to the impacts of climate change.
Addressing these challenges requires a holistic and coordinated approach at the international level to mitigate the impacts of climate change on human mobility and strengthen the adaptive capacity of communities.